“March is likely to be unusually hot this year, with both daytime and nighttime temperatures expected to remain above normal for much of the month,” a senior IMD official said.
India is bracing for one of the warmest March months on record, with above-average temperatures expected to persist for most of the month, according to two officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This unusual heat poses a serious threat to the maturing wheat crop, potentially reducing yields, the official added.
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“March is likely to be unusually hot this year, with both daytime and nighttime temperatures expected to remain above normal for much of the month,” a senior IMD official told Reuters on condition of anonymity ahead of the department’s official forecast, due to be released on Friday.
Daytime temperatures are forecast to begin rising from the second week of March, with several states expected to see maximum temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) by month-end, the official added.
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Unusual heat threatens wheat crop
As the world’s second-largest wheat producer, India is hoping for a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid the need for expensive imports after three consecutive years of poor harvests since 2022. However, excessive heat could lead to a fourth consecutive year of lower yields, which may force the government to cut or remove the existing 40% import tax to allow imports and ease supply shortages.
This pattern is reminiscent of 2022, when a sudden heatwave in February and March damaged wheat crops, ultimately forcing India to ban wheat exports to protect domestic supplies.
The second IMD official said wheat-producing states across northern and central India are likely to see a sharp spike in temperatures — potentially rising up to 6 degrees Celsius above normal — beginning in mid-March.
“March weather won’t be favorable for wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed crops, which could suffer from heat stress,” the official warned.
These winter crops, typically sown between October and December, rely on cooler temperatures throughout their growing cycle to achieve optimal yields.
The ongoing heat concerns have already driven domestic wheat prices to record highs this month, with supplies tightening.
“February was unusually warm, and if March turns out to be even hotter, wheat production could take a significant hit,” said a New Delhi-based trader with a global trading firm.
