With Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) launching its 5-door Thar Roxx on August 15 in a price band of Rs 12.99 lakh to Rs 20.49 lakh, Nomura India said the initial response for Thar Roxx is likely to be strong, and it expects 50,000 bookings to come in on the first day itself. That said, the brokerage sees high cannibalisation with the Thar 3-Door variant, which is logging sales of 5,000-6,000 units per month at present.
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M&M said that test drives for Thar Roxx will begin from September 14. Thar Roxx’s bookings will open on October 3 and its deliveries will begin from Dussehra, October 12, 2024.
Nomura India said it appreciates the consistency with which M&M has come out with successful launches. Every single launch, even the facelifts and variants show a lot of effort to innovate and further improve the product appeal and raise the bar, it said in its latest note.
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“Thar Roxx also showcases this. It’s not merely an extension of the 3-Door Thar but is substantially improved in many areas,” Nomura India said.
Given its price positioning and differentiated styling, the brokerage has built in sales of about 10,000 per month for the Thar Family in FY26F, which may have upside risks. M&M has an ambition to make the Thar Family the number one SUV brand among over Rs 12.5 lakh price tag SUVs in 3-5 years, which may require it to sell 15,000-18,000 units per month.
“If that happens, Roxx could redefine the urban SUV segment and cement MM’s position as the no.1 SUV maker in India for the medium term,” Nomura India said.
For now, Nomura India expects M&M’s SUV portfolio can grow at a 15 per cent CAGR over FY24-27, well ahead of the industry’s estimate of 4-8 per cent CAGR.
“Our SUV unit sales estimates for M&M in FY25F/26F/27F are 5,33,000 (up 16 per cent YoY)/6,36,000 (up 19 per cent YoY)/7,01,000 (up 10 per cent YoY. We maintain M&M as our top pick in OEMs,” it said while suggesting a target price of Rs 3,417. On Friday, the M&M stock was trading 2.72 per cent higher at Rs 2,820.70 on BSE.
