The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, covering 543 parliamentary constituencies across India, will conclude with the voting in the final phase on Saturday, June 1. In the world’s largest democracy, a total of 96.8 crore people were eligible to cast their vote in the 2024 elections, up by 6% from 91.2 crore in 2019.
In order to come to power at the Centre, a party, or coalition, is required to win at least 272 out of the 543 seats in the Lower House of Parliament. This year, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is eyeing a third consecutive term and is challenged by the Opposition’s I.N.D.I.A. bloc, led by the Congress party.
The counting of votes of the LS elections will be held under the jurisdiction of the Election Commission on June 4. Before that, poll experts and different agencies will release the exit poll results in the evening of the last day of voting (June 1), predicting the winners and the margin of the victory.
What are exit polls?
An exit poll is a survey conducted by various organisations soon after voters leave the polling stations. As part of this, voters are asked about the candidate or party for which they have voted. An exit poll is aimed at predicting the outcome of the polls.
These are based on the theory that voters are most likely, to tell the truth when asked about their choice of candidates as they leave the polling stations.
Such surveys are mostly conducted by private firms and are based on different sample sizes and procedures, depending on the respective agencies conducting them.
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Exit polls: History
In India, the first exit poll dates back to 1957 when the Indian Institute of Public Opinion surveyed the second Lok Sabha elections in the country. In 1996, the state-run broadcaster Doordarshan hired the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct exit polls in India. Since then, the practice of surveys took off and saw the involvement of several other organisations.
Exit polls: Rules
The exit polls in India are subject to several laws, including Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 which reads, “No person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of any exit poll during such period, as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard.”
As per the laws, exit polls can be announced only 30 minutes after the voting process ends. Since polling on Saturday will be held from 7 am to 6 pm, exit polls will start rolling only after 6.30 pm.
When and where to watch exit polls?
The exit polls will be announced by several organisations through different channels and social media platforms. Viewers can watch the live streaming of the exit polls across all Network18 channels, including CNBCTV18, starting from 6.30 pm on Saturday, June 1.
Stock market
The stock market has been volatile all through the seven phases of the 2024 general elections.
According to reports, markets are likely to remain volatile in the run-up to the exit polls and might also witness sharp swings when it opens on Monday (June 3) after the exit poll results are announced.
