The Bihar chief minister has to prove his ‘Sushasan Babu’ credentials are intact enough to ensure victory of its candidate from a seat that the BJP’s survey found would have been best given to someone else
The third phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections will see several high-profile seats going to polls. In West Bengal’s Berhampur, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury will fight against an aggressive Yusuf Pathan of TMC, while in Uttar Pradesh’s Mainpuri, Dimple Yadav will look to defend the Yadav family bastion. However, if there is one person for whom the stakes are the highest, it is Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has to prove his political relevance to the BJP by ensuring JDU retains Madhepura — a seat previously represented by Lalu Prasad and Sharad Yadav.
HYPHENATING MUSLIMS & YADAVS
No non-Yadav has won from this constituency since 1967. The demography of this seat explains why th electorate votes here the way it does. Among more than 14 lakh voters in Madhepura, Yadavs comprise five lakhs and two lakhs are Muslim.
Traditionally, they vote en bloc for the RJD, which changed in 2009 when Lalu Yadav stepped aside. However, even during the 2014 Modi Tsunami, RJD snatched back the seat. Finally, in 2019, the Modi factor and polarisation made much of the five lakh Yadavs side with the JDU’s Dinesh Yadav who is the JDU candidate this time too.
BJP sources say that during seat-sharing talks, Madhepura was among the handful of seats the JDU was stubborn about keeping in its kitty. Now, they say it’s incumbent upon JDU to retain it when this Yadav bastion goes to polls on Tuesday.
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WHY IS IT A TEST FOR NITISH?
There are two reasons why the seat is a test for Nitish Kumar’s leadership in Bihar amid murmurs of BJP being keen on the top post. Dinesh Yadav not only has the baggage of anti-incumbency but is locally unpopular, according to BJP sources. Despite the Modi factor and 1.5 lakh Rajputs, three lakh OBCs and two lakh Brahmins being pro-BJP, Yadav’s unpopularity may cost the NDA, fears the BJP.
On a larger scale, Nitish Kumar has to prove his ‘Sushasan Babu’ credentials are intact enough in Bihar to ensure victory of its candidate from a seat that the BJP’s survey found would have been best given to someone else.
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“Madhepura is a Yadav bastion that traditionally favoured RJD. But Sharad Yadav won on a JDU ticket in 2009 riding on Nitish Kumar’s popularity and JDU’s Dinesh Yadav won in 2019 riding on PM Modi’s popularity. But ever since, much has changed. Is Nitish Kumar’s image of a good administrator still intact? If it is, it shouldn’t be a problem for the JDU to retain the seat armed with Modi-ji’s popularity,” said a BJP source on condition of anonymity.
But what the source left unsaid was what if JDU fails to retain Madhepura? The seat thus is more than just a constituency for Kumar. It is his battle to prove his political relevance in Bihar — a state where he is serving as the chief minister for the ninth term.
