The BJP would bag all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi if the polls were to be held in January, according to the India Today Mood of the Nation survey. There’s a big question that the trend raises?
Why does a state that has overwhelmingly voted for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in two consecutive Assembly polls give all the Lok Sabha seats to the BJP?
Despite a Congress-AAP alliance, the India Today Mood of the Nation survey shows the BJP getting 57% of the vote share in Delhi.
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The Mood of the Nation’s February 2024 edition is based on a survey of 35,801 respondents in all Lok Sabha seats. The poll was conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024. Health warning: Opinion polls can get it wrong.
Going by the numbers of the survey, the BJP would win all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi if the polls were held in January.
The AAP-Congress coalition, which would fare well in Punjab, fails to dent the BJP’s seats in Delhi.
“Punjab’s demographic composition is different from Delhi’s. It has always had an uneasy relationship with the Centre, even when the Congress party was in power in the 1970s and 80s,” Rahul Verma, fellow, Centre for Policy Research, said on India Today TV.
“This alliance [between the Congress and the AAP] in both Delhi and Punjab is not easy. Because in Punjab, AAP feels that they can gain these seats even without the Congress. So, you have seen the CM of Punjab making statements that we don’t need to have an alliance. And in Delhi, even if they come together, they will not be able to make any dent,” adds Verma.
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Why do two states give such different results with the same combination?
One of the factors is different voting patterns in Assembly and parliamentary elections.
“It’s a split vote, and it’s happening across India, across all the states. Each and every state, if you look into the vote share of the last assembly and the last Lok Sabha, you will see somewhere between 10% to 25% jump in favour of the BJP in Lok Sabha elections,” said psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh.
There is an additional factor at work in Delhi that swings votes in favour of AAP in Assembly polls but doesn’t work for it in the Lok Sabha polls, according to political analyst Rasheed Kidwai.
“Delhi’s story is very simple. It is due to the Muslim vote that swings. In Assembly elections, Muslim votes tend to favour Arvind Kejriwal’s party, and in the Lok Sabha elections, it favours the Congress. So that is why there is a kind of mismatch,” Rasheed Kidwai said on India Today TV.
Going by that logic, the seats of Chandni Chowk or East Delhi, where the minorities are in big numbers, could be foucs areas of the Congress and the AAP. They can come together and put up a tough fight for the BJP.
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However, what needs to be kept in mind is that the minority factor comes into play in Assembly elections because Assembly constituencies are smaller, and the numbers are enough to decide the fate of the seats. That isn’t the case in the Lok Sabha polls.
Experts say that after the delimitation process of 2008, the entire composition of the Delhi seats has changed. In Delhi, there is not even a single Lok Sabha seat now that can be decided by voters of the minority community, according to the experts on India Today TV.
Apart from that, the Modi factor plays an important role in the Lok Sabha election in Delhi like it does in most other places. That helps in consolidation of votes for the BJP.
The other reason could be that the people of Delhi still see the AAP as a regional party despite its efforts to grow in several states.
So, there are multiple factors that make Delhi seats go to the Aam Aadmi Party in Assembly polls but to the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls. That would even be the case if the 2024 Lok Sabha polls were held in January, according to the Mood of the Nation survey.
