Political strategist Prashant Kishor on Thursday said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is ahead of the INDIA alliance and that it has an advantage in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls because of the party’s win in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Kishor, however, refused to call the assembly election a semi-final. He said that if that was the case, the BJP would have lost the final in 2019 as it had lost all five of the five states in 2018.
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“I would not like to call it a semi-final. Because last time, the BJP had lost five of five states. That means, the BJP would have lost the final, before the Lok Sabha elections. I don’t see it as a semi-final. But definitely, when you go with a win, it gives you an added advantage, at least psychologically,” he said in an interview with India Today’s News Director Rahul Kanwal.
“To that extent, BJP has an advantage. But to draw a conclusive argument that because the BJP has won three states, they are going to win the Lok Sabha election is not true,” he said.
Kishor, who was once very close to joining the Congress but the talks fell through at the last moment, said the BJP was ahead any which way even before the state elections. “For any independent observer, BJP was well ahead of the INDIA alliance, and that continues to be the case,” the strategist said. “But these state elections would have added a bit more psychological advantage to the BJP.”
Kishore, however, added that he won’t draw a direct correlation between what has happened in the states versus what is going to happen in the Lok Sabha elections.
When asked about what he thought of the Congress party’s defeat in the Hindi heartland, Kishor said the Congress as a unit was not in a position to fight and win in Madhya Pradesh. “They were not in contention (in MP).
Rajasthan was clear. For Chhattisgarh, the incumbents especially with strong faces always give you this illusion that this person is invincible. We have seen this in Telangana with BRS, the same was the case in Chhattisgarh,” he said.
The poll strategist said that the Congress was not very strong in Chhattisgarh. “Last time, they (Congress) won especially because of the paddy issue. They caught the imagination (of voters) and the BJP was caught off guard. But Congress could not repeat the performance in Lok Sabha polls. If you look at the Lok Sabha result, which happened after a two-thirds majority in Chhattisgarh, they were literally wiped off. People said it was the Modi factor, and that might be the case. But the reality is in Chhattisgarh, BJP is quite strong.”
In the 2018 elections, the Congress bagged 68 of 90 seats with 43 per cent vote share while the BJP managed to win just 15 with 33 per cent votes. However, months later, the saffron party swept the state by winning 9 of 11 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress, however, managed to increase its tally from 1 in 2014 to 2 in 2019.
Kishor said the Congress had been complacent in Chhattisgarh and that this promise of caste-based survey may have also hurt the party. “I am not sure how much this caste-based reservation, which Congress is making a central issue, would have hurt them. One needs to study this carefully. Because Congress’ core vote base probably would not have liked it.”
“My sense is for a regional party when they talk about caste-based survey vs a national party making it a central ploy might have backfired in the Hindi heartland.”
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Ahead of assembly elections, former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi had promised to conduct a caste census if his party came to power in Chhattisgarh.
