Centre may increase reliance on NSSF to finance fiscal deficit
The collections under the revamped Senior Citizen Savings Scheme (SCSS) jumped 176% on year to Rs 55,000 crore in the first quarter of the current financial year, indicating a buoyancy in small saving scheme receipts that are being tapped to part-finance the Centre’s fiscal deficit.
Similarly, the newly launched Mahila Samman Savings Certificates plan fetched Rs 6,750 crore till July 10 this fiscal, almost double the sum of Rs 3,666 crore mobilised in April-May.
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In the Budget for FY24, the Centre has doubled the maximum deposit under the SCSS to Rs 30 lakh to generate safe and assured retirement income in old age. Also, the scheme offers a much more attractive interest rate to senior citizens compared with around 7.5% being offered by top public sector banks.
Higher receipts under the National Small Saving Schemes (NSSF) could signal to the market that the Centre could reduce its dependence on market borrowing to finance the fiscal deficit in FY24, and help moderate the yields on the government securities (G-secs).
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The SCSS, which is currently fetching 8.2% interest per annum, has added 6,52,000 new accounts in the first three months of FY24 compared with 0.296 million in the year-ago period. The receipts under SCSS were Rs 19,925 crore in Q1FY23.
In Mahila Samman Savings Certificates scheme, 1.18 million accounts have been opened so far via post offices. “The scheme will likely pick up even faster now as it is now also available in for subscription via public sector banks and some private sector banks. Efforts are on to make it available online via these banks as well,” a senior official said.
The Centre has increased its reliance on the NSSF to finance its fiscal deficit. The government has budgeted offtake from the NSSF to rise from Rs 3.96 trillion in FY23 to Rs 4.71 trillion in FY24.
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To fund the fiscal deficit of Rs 17.87 trillion in FY24, the government has planned a net borrowing of Rs 12.31 trillion from the market. Since the Centre is virtually the sole user of the NSSF deposits to finance the fiscal deficit, any extra receipt could lead to lower market borrowing by the Centre in FY24.
India’s 10-year benchmark bond yield has been trading around 7.1% over the past week, but the government would like it to be below 7%.
In a note, Care Ratings has said: “Going ahead, we maintain an upside bias on the 10-year bond yield on account of shrinking liquidity, heavy supply, and delayed prospects of rate cuts. We also remain watchful of monsoon and sowing-related developments which could drive the trend in bond yields. The 10-year benchmark bond yield is seen trading within 7-7.2% by end-FY24.”
The 10-year benchmark bond yield dipped below 7% for the first time in over a year on May 5.
