IMD has suggested that normal to above normal rainfall will probably occur over many areas of Peninsular India and adjoining East Central India, Northeast India, and over some parts of Northwest India.
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The Indian Meteorological Department on Tuesday said that the SouthWest monsoon season across India will likely be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of the rainfall season for this period (June to September) between 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
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According to IMD, higher probability for monsoon seasonal rainfall is considered to be normal. So if rainfall range is less than 90%, it is put in the ‘Deficient’ category and if it is between 90%-95%, it is considered to be ‘Below Normal’. Rainfall from 96% to 104% is considered ‘Normal’ and between 105% to 110% is considered ‘Above Normal’. More than 110% of rainfall would put it in the ‘Excess’ category.
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Rainfall distribution across India
IMD has suggested that normal to above normal rainfall will probably occur over many areas of Peninsular India and adjoining East Central India, Northeast India, and over some parts of Northwest India. Normal to below normal rainfall will likely occur over some parts of Northwest India and some areas of Westcentral India and Northeast India.
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Impact of La Nina
For those who are unaware what La Nina means, it refers to the abnormal cooling of ocean surface in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. La Nina is linked to good rainfall in India as opposed to El Nino, which refers to the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
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The forecast from the latest MMCFS and other climate models suggest that El Nino conditions might develop during the monsoon season. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions exist over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate forecast indicates that positive IOP conditions could develop during the SouthWest monsoon season.
Farmers from wheat-growing states of Haryana, Punjab, western Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have been in a lot of distress as these states have received more than normal rainfall from March 1 to March 25. The damage to wheat crops has not been officially assessed yet, but a potential output loss of 10% is likely, according to the farming community and trade as reported in the FE.
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The monsoon prediction is definitely going to bring a lot of relief to the farmers who are dependent on monsoon rainfall for their crop production. The initial weather conditions in the month of April have been used for the MME forecast for 2023 SouthWest Monsoon season rainfall.
