Pradeep Gupta spoke of a plethora of issues in Tripura, to BJP making inroads in Meghalaya and Congress party trying to revive its base.
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Pradeep Gupta, psephologist and managing director of Axis My India, whose exit poll predicted the landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat, believes Central government’s schemes related to air and rail connectivity will remain a key factor in the state assembly elections of northeast states.
Tripura will vote on February 16, Nagaland and Meghalaya will vote on February 27, and counting for all three states will be held on March 2.
Pradeep Gupta spoke of a plethora of issues in Tripura, to BJP making inroads in Meghalaya and Congress party trying to revive its base. Edited excerpts:
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Tripura is going to vote on February 16. The regional party Tipra Motha has made the contest triangular, what do you think the results would be like?
Tripura traditionally is known for giving the verdict to one government for a long period of time following which Left led by Manik Sarkar ruled for about thirty years from 1998 to 2018. It is different from other northeast states, where regional parties after Congress have remained a strong force. Tripura too had regional parties such as IPFT, IMPT, but they had a limited area of the support base. These parties did not have a stronghold beyond 20 assembly constituencies.
In Tripura, people are inclined towards the national party. The mindset of people is like people in Bengal where Left ruled for a longer period of time and then Trinamool Congress is ruling for the last three terms. People believe in giving time to a party after it’s elected to power.
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No doubt tribal communities dominate in the state, but Tipra Motha or any other regional party cannot win more than 20 states. This was the reason Left government led by Manik Sarkar ruled for thirty years. Congress which is contesting on 13 seats in alliance with Left has lost its base and its vote share in the last assembly elections was only two percent, while the Left is a major opposition party and has been trying hard.
If we look at the whole picture, regional parties have a history of not giving tough competition, and the Left doesn’t look confident because of which it forged an alliance with Congress. Considering all the factors, BJP seems to be in a good position, but it seems the party will have to face anti-incumbency as they changed the chief minister as well.
Commenting on the Centre announcing its decision of connecting northeast state capitals with air and rail connectivity before 2024, Gupta said that commuting is a major concern in hilly states. People have to travel for basic needs such as reaching hospitals, and schools, besides this water scarcity, also remains another issue. Such announcements certainly play an important role.
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Considering Congress’s previous performance in Meghalaya, do you think parties will gain more in the state?
Meghalaya is a state of seven parties and last time Congress secured 29 percent vote share and 21 seats. They were the number one party in the state, but NPEP formed the government in alliance with BJP and other parties. Their alliance has been facing issues on various fronts.
The small parties have a vital role in the state and now Trinamool Congress too is in the fray. So far as Congress performance is concerned, six of its leaders including former chief minister Mukul Sangma joined TMC. This is where Congress too has been dented.
Meghalaya has a 60-member House, but considering the vital role of small parties, it is going to be a tightrope for everyone. “I would say, it will be a Khichdi. The regional parties come up with one or two seats.”
Commenting on the Centre’s initiative and schemes, Gupta said that BJP’s vote share may increase from the last assembly election vote share of 10 percent. Also, elections in Meghalaya are based on individual politics.
BJP sees a ray of hope in Nagaland, what is your observation?
The BJP and NDPP are bidding for a second term in Nagaland. Both the parties have same combination, NDPP is contesting on 40 seats, while the BJP is contesting on 20 seats.
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Naga People’s Front, the main opposition which had got 39 percent vote share and 26 seats in the last election has seen exit of many leaders, who joined either BJP or NDPP. Two-third of party leaders switched their sides and it seems there is no strong opposition.
This time, it will be interesting to see how the alliance partners BJP and NDPP have performed in the constituencies.
