Here is why it might be a good decision by Rahul Gandhi not to be Congress president again, and Ashok Gehlot could be better off leading the party into 2024.
Media reports have suggested that interim Congress president Sonia Gandhi wants Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot to lead the party into the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be seeking a third straight term.
If Sonia Gandhi has actually made the suggestion, Ashok Gehlot wouldn’t be able to say no. One, it’s a significant promotion. And two, no Congress leader says no to a Gandhi (Only a Gandhi can say no to party leaders. Like Rahul Gandhi is ignoring the chorus among party leaders for him to become Congress president).
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A CAREFUL CONTENDER
On Wednesday, Gehlot said he was hearing “all this” only from the media and that he was fulfilling duties assigned to him. Apart from being the Rajasthan CM, Gehlot is also a senior party observer for the Gujarat Assembly election due by the end of this year.
Gehlot and Sonia Gandhi met on Tuesday, a day after he said Rahul Gandhi remains the party’s unanimous leader. Gehlot hasn’t shared in public what transpired in the meeting. A Gandhi loyalist, Gehlot perhaps does not want to look disrespectful (to Rahul) and too ambitious for position.
CONGRESS PRESIDENT POLL
The Congress is expected to announce the schedule of the election of the party president in a few days. This is when Sonia Gandhi is abroad for a medical check-up and is reported to be reluctant to return as full-time party president for five more years.
In the last 25 years, the Congress has been led by a Gandhi either Sonia or Rahul. The Gandhis have not forgotten the experience of Sitaram Kesri, who sidelined many Gandhi loyalists on becoming Congress president. But here is why it will actually help the Congress if Rahul Gandhi does not become party president. Here is also why the party will benefit if Gehlot leads it into 2024.
WHY RAHUL GANDHI SHOULD NOT
There is no denying that Rahul Gandhi has been seen as a reluctant politician. Despite being Congress president once, he does not have either an exciting election track record or administrative experience.
When he led from the front, the Congress lost. And when the party won, much of the credit went to regional leaders such as Punjab’s Amarinder Singh (he has since floated his own party), Madhya Pradesh’s Digvijaya Singh, and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh or Gehlot himself in Rajasthan. Rahul Gandhi also could not get his idea of reforms through in his own party.
P Chidambaram and many other Congress leaders have often said that the Gandhis are the glue that keeps the party together. This was truer when Sonia Gandhi was being encouraged to take over the party and when her children were not yet in active politics. Things have changed now.
Many of those who made political capital by being a Sonia loyalist will not naturally accept and wholeheartedly rally behind one of her children as their leader. Likewise, her daughter, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, has her own constituency whose support base does not automatically get transferred should Rahul lead the party. And vice versa.
There are legacy issues, too. If one of the Gandhi siblings leads the Congress into 2024, what will they say during the campaign? Branding the Modi government corrupt will invite Bofors rebuttals. Calling the prime minister repressive will meet the Emergency jibes. Foreign policy debate will trigger references to Jawahar Lal Nehru’s handling of China.
WHY ASHOK GEHLOT SHOULD
This is where Ashok Gehlot comes with a cleaner slate. He has a proven track record as a chief minister and an organisation man. He is credited with quelling a party rebellion led by colleague Sachin Pilot. This is when many of Rahul’s associates have left the party in recent times. Gehlot also knows Hindi and comes from a politically relevant caste.
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Gehlot will have other advantages, too. In India’s political landscape, there are other Modi challengers like West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who could never get along with Rahul. Some leaders do not take Rahul seriously. Others find him too uptight. But the likes of Mamata, and even Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, cordially meet Sonia Gandhi. This is where Gehlot, handpicked by Sonia, will have an advantage.
This is not to say the Congress, if it does well enough in 2024, will make Gehlot the prime minister. In that case, only a Gandhi can take the chair. But it will help the Congress if a Gehlot leads the party into 2024.
