That the road to Delhi goes via Uttar Pradesh is an old saying in Indian politics. But now, the BJP is planning to add another stop on its 2024 roadmap – the Yadav and Muslim voters. The ruling BJP has already put in motion its plan, reaching out to Pasmanda Muslims along with outreach programmes for Yadav and Jatav communities in the run-up to the next general elections. The strategy is carefully aligned with the party’s mission to sweep all 80 seats from the state in the Lok Sabha.
Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya had even given a peek into the blueprint with his tweet. “Yaduvanshi (Yadav), Ravidasis (Jatavs) and Pasmanda Muslims will be brought closer to the BJP so that the lotus can bloom at every booth in UP,” he had said.
The BJP’s apparent declaration to woo Muslims and Yadavs means Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party will have to work harder to retain its core vote bank. Muslim and Yadav voters have so far remained loyal to the SP, the ‘MY’ initials even touted as synonymous with party patriarch’s Mulayam Singh Yadav’s initials. The combination had powered Akhilesh Yadav to the CM’s post in 2015.
The Jatavs, meanwhile, have been supporters of Mayawati’s BSP. To make inroads into the Jatav community, the BJP had appointed Baby Rani Maurya, former governor of Uttarakhand, to Yogi Adityanath’s cabinet after 2022 elections. Maurya has previously served as the mayor of Agra where Jatavs have a good presence. Interestingly, BSP chief Mayawati often starts her election campaigns from this area.
The BJP’s outreach to the three blocs has intensified with the Tiranga Yatra campaign. Sources say the BJP knows well that out of 1.7 lakh booths across 80 Lok Sabha seats of Uttar Pradesh, it must focus on 22,000 booths dominated by Yadav, Muslim and Jatav voters. The party has already directed senior leaders and MPs to increase the party footprint in these booths.
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP had bagged 64 out of 80 seats, while its ally Apna Dal (S) had won two seats. Recently, the BJP won Azamgarh and Rampur parliamentary seats after bypolls, following which the SP was reduced to three Lok Sabha seats. The Congress has just one seat from UP — Raebareli which was won by Sonia Gandhi.
As per a rough estimate, Yadavs constitute around 11% of UP’s population, Dalits constitute 21% and the presence of Muslim population is estimated to be around 18%. Of the 80 Lok Sabha seats from the state, 17 are reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates, while Muslim and Yadav voters are in a decisive position in 10 seats each.
The Samajwadi Party, however, says the BJP’s outreach programmes will have no impact on 2024 elections.
Speaking to News18, SP national spokesperson Abdul Hafiz Gandhi said: “The BJP has reduced itself to a mere election machinery. Instead of focussing on policies and reforms, all they focus on is how to win elections and stay in power. People have now understood this fact, so no matter how many outreach programs they run, people are not going to come under their influence anymore.”
“There is a sense of negativity among the people against the BJP. The BJP sees people as its vote bank. It divides people in castes and religion and is only concerned about votes. In 2024, the BJP will gain nothing from its outreach programs. Instead, it will lose its own traditional voters,” he added.
