HYDERABAD: Here is some good news after facing months of pandemic’s second wave devastation. Health experts are hinting at total waning of Covid-19 positive cases in Telangana by June end. The experts also said that the current trend of positivity rate is indicating a clear pattern of waning of cases, which is likely to happen more or less at the same time predicted.
The experts deduced their predictions based on two mathematical models. While the current daily caseload has dropped to 1,600-1,700 cases, the overall infection rate is also dipping. As per the parameters, Telangana should report around 500 cases daily to arrive at a stable trend or any further dip in the cases will indicate total waning of the virus.
According to professor Dr D Narayana Rao, pro vice chancellor, SRM University, Amaravati, waning of the cases can be defined as the date on which the number of Covid-19 cases has reduced to 5 per cent of the peak number of the cases during the second wave. “We are predicting that the total waning of the second wave in Telangana will happen on June 21. We have to factor in an additional three days before or after the original predicted date. But, looking at the current number of positive cases, the second wave will be waning around the same time (June 21),” he told TOI.
For the predictions, the susceptible, infected and recovered (SIR) model was used by the SRM University experts based on the list of official number of Covid-19 cases released by the Telangana government.
It may be recalled Telangana had reported the highest number of positive cases (10,122) in a single day this year on April 27. This was not only the highest cases recorded in the second wave, but also through the first wave and second wave of the pandemic.
A team of IIT professors from Kanpur and Hyderabad, who worked out a mathematical model for the Centre based on susceptible, undetected, tested (positive) and removed approach (SUTRA) model, forecast waning of Covid-19 cases in the state by June 23. Interestingly, the SUTRA model predicted this date for Telangana even before the second wave of cases actually began rising.
Subodh Kandamuthan, professor and director of Centre for Health Care Management at Administrative Staff College of India, said that a significant factor in the second wave is that of positive cases in Hyderabad coming under control quickly when compared to the first wave.
“The biggest relief this time is that despite the daily testing of cases going above one lakh, the positivity rate has come down below 2 per cent. This clearly shows that the infection spread is very much under control. Covid-19 surveillance has helped break the infection chain successfully,” he added.
